Tariffs and regulatory shocks are hitting North American trucking. Can the industry adapt in time?
Despite a regional trade pact, new barriers are reshaping the movement of goods and trucks across North American borders.
We asked Georgetown University Professor Antonio Ortiz-Mena, who is also the President and CEO of AOM Advisors: Geopolitics, Trade and Investment, to walk us through the evolving landscape.
Tariffs and trade policy were key topics at the first Leadership Dialogue of IRU’s North American Transportation Forum last March. The invitation-only event, in partnership with IRU members ATA, CANACAR and CTA, brought together trucking industry leaders from Canada, Mexico and the US.
What’s the impact of tariffs?
Tariffs have a direct and significant impact on cross-border trucking in North America.
Historically, the zero-tariff regime for originating products (those produced entirely in North America) under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) provided lower costs and predictable conditions for trucking operations between the US, Canada and Mexico. This enabled efficient routing, reliable demand management, and strong client service.
However, recent changes have disrupted this environment. A substantial share of Mexican and Canadian exports to the US no longer enters under USMCA preferences and are subject to 25% tariffs. These added expenses force trucking companies to reconsider routes and pricing, complicate demand forecasting, and challenge client service commitments.
Evolving rules of origin – especially for auto parts – add further complexity. Tariffs on steel and aluminum can reach 50%, and new quotas or trade restrictions based on trade balances are under consideration. The risk of unilateral US actions, which may not align with the World Trade Organization or USMCA commitments, further increases uncertainty and operational risk.
How do tariffs impact logistics and supply chain planning?
Tariffs directly influence logistics and supply chain planning by affecting cost structures, preferred routes, and the types of goods moved across borders. Companies must closely monitor tariff changes and adjust operations accordingly.
For example, if tariffs rise on certain goods, shippers may reroute freight, shift sourcing strategies, or renegotiate contracts. While dispute settlement mechanisms under NAFTA/USMCA have provided some stability, growing uncertainty – especially with the USMCA review approaching in late 2025 – requires companies to stay agile and ready for further changes or unilateral US actions.
How are trucking and logistics companies responding to tariff uncertainty?
Trucking and logistics companies are actively adapting to evolving trade dynamics. They are engaging with national governments during the USMCA review process to voice concerns and propose practical solutions.
Many are also forming coalitions with clients and industry partners – advocating for seamless and efficient cross-border operations.
In parallel, firms are working closely with customs and regulatory agencies to ensure that new technologies – such as AI-driven supply chain management systems – are implemented effectively to enhance both efficiency and compliance.
At the same time, companies are developing contingency plans to respond to sudden tariff increases or new non-tariff barriers. These include stricter language requirements for drivers – as discussed in recent US policy proposals – and enhanced state-level border inspections, such as recent measures in Texas targeting shipments from Mexico.
How can companies weather the current situation?
The top priority for trucking and logistics companies is to actively participate in the upcoming USMCA review process. This includes engaging with policymakers, regulatory agencies, and industry groups to advocate for policies that support predictable and efficient cross-border trucking.
Building strong alliances with US customers and supply chain partners is crucial, as is investing in technology and compliance systems to quickly adapt to regulatory changes.
How has North American trade integration benefited companies?
Trade integration has delivered major benefits. Zero tariffs and customs facilitation under NAFTA and the USMCA have significantly lowered transport and production costs. This has benefited consumers, created jobs, and given North American production a competitive edge in global markets. Freight volumes and efficiency have increased, particularly in key sectors such as automotive, electronics and agriculture.
Moreover, trade integration has driven job creation in logistics, warehousing and related sectors. By streamlining supply chains, it has also enhanced the global competitiveness of North American goods, making the region a stronger player in international trade.
Looking ahead 5-10 years, what are the main risks and hopes for regional trade?
There are growing fears that increased tariff volatility and unilateral actions by the US could undermine the predictability and cost-effectiveness of cross-border trucking.
Additionally, the introduction of new non-tariff barriers – such as language requirements or stricter inspections – may disrupt operations and exclude segments of the workforce. There is also concern that a potential breakdown in dispute settlement mechanisms could erode trust and stability in regional trade.
On the other hand, there are hopes that the USMCA review will reaffirm commitments to free and fair trade, offering renewed certainty for the next decade. Technological advancements – such as artificial intelligence, digital customs systems and targeted inspections – could help make border crossings faster and more secure. Furthermore, continued economic integration may further strengthen North America’s position as a competitive global trading bloc.
To summarise, tariffs and regulatory uncertainty present real challenges for cross-border trucking. However, active industry engagement, technological adaptation and regional cooperation offer the best path forward for resilient and efficient North American trade.
While global trade turmoil will affect all countries, North America is relatively well-positioned to weather these challenges – if companies, policymakers and regulators work together to address emerging barriers and seize new opportunities.
Antonio Ortiz-Mena, PhD, is the President & CEO of AOM Advisors: Geopolitics, Trade and Investment in Washington, DC, and Chair of the USMCA Committee at the Mexican Foreign Trade Council.